Mike's notes.
Bayesianism has become my favorite math-idea-that-doesn’t-involve-math. It’s three simple steps. Step 1: have an idea about a thing. Step 2: observe the thing. Step 3: have a new idea based on the observation. (repeat) There are two tricks to make this work for you. The first is how much to update. Being Bayesian means changing … Continue reading Being (even more) Bayesian
How much should new information matter? Or, is this time different? Because sometimes it’s not. “Merlin (Heidemanns) said that essentially the polls gain more weight. It’s not that we construct a model and weight the polls. We don’t take a weighted average of the polls, we estimate latent parameters and the polls are data. That … Continue reading 3 prompts to being Bayesian
We’ve covered why Jack Reacher would be a good financial advisor. In A Wanted Man, Reacher once again proves his mettle. To set the scene, we’ve got two bad guys (we think) on the run from our two heroes (we think). It’s rural Iowa and Reacher and Hero Two need to figure out which way … Continue reading Is Jack Reacher a Bayesian?
Recap: Mood affiliation is when an attitude unduly influence our perception, for example cruise ships. Bayesian thinking is updating our beliefs relative to the information. “The marshmallow study,” Andrew Huberman told Shane Parrish, “was when they gave kids the option to have one now or two if they wait. It’s fun to watch the videos … Continue reading Marshmallow moods
Kris surfaced this work and had some excellent notes. “Impossible things happen fairly often. That doesn’t mean things are actually impossible just that we thought they were impossible. There’s a corollary to this: enough people relying on something being impossible makes that thing more likely in a perverse feedback kind of way.” Agustin Lebron We’ve … Continue reading “It’s impossible”
Language is a marker. It’s a symbol of our basic Bayesianism – the more we use some words the more important the ideas behind them are. Here’s our collection of interestingish words, so far. Here are some 2021 additions. … “Uncached questions.” When an interviewer asks an interviewee a question which may require longer thought … Continue reading 2021 speak
Sometimes we just need the right word to explain an idea which leads to action. Having a name for a thing changes the way we think about it. These are some of my favorites from the Wharton Moneyball podcast. Let’s be precise. For instance, what does herd immunity mean? Often we are not precise. What’s … Continue reading Words from Wharton
We highlight design because humans are conditional creatures. Certain circumstances make certain actions more or less likely. Living near a huge retirement community in Florida shows this contrast clearly. The involvement in new sports like pickleball, water volleyball, and sand tennis exemplify the design principle: If you build it, they will come. In talking about … Continue reading Two health designs
Restaurants are an interesting case study. In part because of the accessibility, everyone has can cook something. So much like making movies or winning wines there’s a fair bit of “I’ve seen that done so I could do that”. But restaurants are difficult businesses. The pricing power belongs to the landlord not the chef. Staffing … Continue reading TTID Restaurant
There’s an idea, it’s a formula but really it’s an idea, in gambling called the Kelly Criterion. Broadly, it suggests to act in proportion to edge. Bet big when you have a big advantage. Card counters, like those in the book Bringing Down the House followed this idea. While Kelly is math, like being Bayesian, … Continue reading Kelly and Crypto
The Waiter's Pad 