Mike's notes.
Bayesianism has become my favorite math-idea-that-doesn’t-involve-math. It’s three simple steps. Step 1: have an idea about a thing. Step 2: observe the thing. Step 3: have a new idea based on the observation. (repeat) There are two tricks to make this work for you. The first is how much to update. Being Bayesian means changing … Continue reading Being (even more) Bayesian
How much should new information matter? Or, is this time different? Because sometimes it’s not. “Merlin (Heidemanns) said that essentially the polls gain more weight. It’s not that we construct a model and weight the polls. We don’t take a weighted average of the polls, we estimate latent parameters and the polls are data. That … Continue reading 3 prompts to being Bayesian
We’ve covered why Jack Reacher would be a good financial advisor. In A Wanted Man, Reacher once again proves his mettle. To set the scene, we’ve got two bad guys (we think) on the run from our two heroes (we think). It’s rural Iowa and Reacher and Hero Two need to figure out which way … Continue reading Is Jack Reacher a Bayesian?
For each thing that happens there is a field of potential things which could happen. Those potential events fill out a distribution where some events are more likely than others. A daughter’s height for instance, could be between four and eight feet but it’s very very likely that her height will be between her mother’s … Continue reading Tailing Rodgers (part two)
“The thing that makes The Prince such a timeless and scandalous work,” explained Stacy Vanek Smith, “is the same exact thing, Machiavelli removes morality from the situation.” Smith is out to talk about her book, Machiavelli for Women and the book’s seed came about when Smith was stuck on her salary. Rather, her salary disparity. … Continue reading Machiavellian framing
Mike Maples Jr. worked for a software company that enabled telecom companies to offer broadband service. Mike’s job was sales.For many telcos it wasn’t even a buy or build? question because they were in the hardware business: driving tucks, laying cable, and climbing telephone poles. But not every company was a potential client. “I started” … Continue reading “Going for the no”
“Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define…the truth is more subtle yet in some ways easier: our confusion often lies less in numbers … Continue reading A confusing life expectancy calculation
“Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define…the truth is more subtle yet in some ways easier: our confusion often lies less in numbers … Continue reading A confusing life expectancy calculation
“And so the general mathematical way of thinking about this,” explained Vitalik Buterin, “is if you have A and B, and you had to choose between a compromise between A and B or a coin flip between A and B, would you take the compromise or the coin flip?” Convex situations are x^2 conditions. These … Continue reading Compromise or Coin Flip?
Supported by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path. Update: This is a two-parter. First, the update from Falk on Wharton Moneyball and below from his podcast with Zach Lowe. Getting lucky. When asked how he got started in analytics Falk said: “The short answer is right place, right time.” “But also the right … Continue reading Ben Falk
