What are the incentives behind this prediction?

Predicting like Tyler Cowen, Enrico Fermi, and Nate Silver. One way to think more like an economist is to think about incentives. In our piece about Tyler Cowen, the setting is finding food in a strange place. The incentives question is, what to ask a concierge or driver considering their incentives are often avoid blowback rather… Continue reading What are the incentives behind this prediction?

How to solve ‘black box’ problems.

Today’s post is also available in podcast form on Soundcloud and iTunes: New skills to pay new bills. One of my favorite online thinkers is Penelope Trunk, entrepreneur and home-schooling mother.* She wrote “Search is the most important academic subject today,” and explained: “So instead of wasting years teaching kids to memorize answers, why not… Continue reading How to solve ‘black box’ problems.