Mike's notes.
This blog is supported by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path. My tallest reading hurdle is ignorance. Not willful, but present nonetheless. We all need a ledge to stand on and hoist ourselves up to new ideas. Podcast are great for this, so are YouTube videos. Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow is an accessible,… Continue reading Daniel Kahneman
Alice runs her team conservatively and finishes with 17 wins, 17 draws, and 4 losses. Bob runs his team with more variance and finishes with 19 wins, 11, draws, and 8 losses. Which is better? Let’s reframe, like the ball bet. Is it better to exchange 2 wins for 6 draws and 4 fewer losses? … Continue reading Alice and Bob own soccer teams…
CBS News presents a survey suggesting people want younger politicians. Okay, sounds great! But not so fast. We’ve got questions. Why am I seeing this? Courtesy of Sir David Spiegelhalter, this question wants us to consider why this is on a screen eighteen inches from our nose. Is it because it’s essential information for the… Continue reading Are older people worse politicians? (& 4 good questions)
An athlete shoots 70%. If they shoot twice, what are the chances they make at least one? 🤔 Before answering, consider thinking. Daniel Kahneman has an entire book about Thinking, Fast and Slow. Fast thought is immediate. Slow is deliberate. Often ‘thinking fast’ about thinking fast and slow is that slow is better. That’s not… Continue reading Thinking paths and more
A quarantine activity in my sister-in-law’s family is buying stocks. Stonks. Gamestonks? Each week, each kid, gets five dollars. They invest in whatever they want. The best returns, to date, are from my niece. She’s 8. Her name begins with ‘T’ so her stock choices begin with ‘T’. She owns Tesla. My three nieces and… Continue reading How to complete next year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball bracket
Edit: this was drafted in late 2019. I loved the movie The Game. The premise was that for his birthday, Michael Douglas’s character was ‘attacked’ in a real life adventure. It was part thrill, part horror. I can’t even remember how much of it was real. ‘What is real’ is a common premise in my… Continue reading Made up start up: The Financial Game
One of the most important findings of behavioral psychology is Daniel Kahneman’s idea of WYSIATS, what you see is all there is. If something is salient, it’s important. If something is hidden, it may as well not exist. But this tendency comes in contact with any ‘easy’ choice, like what to eat. On the one hand… Continue reading Calorie Labels, Screen-time Labels
There’s a quarrel in psychology research over Linda the banker. First some background. Most behavioral psychology is about crafting nearly identical situations with nearly identical composites of people who, despite the near identity, act in different ways. One example is when employees are prompted with savings cues for their 401k. Imagine that with the annual… Continue reading Linda buys a bat and brand
“When faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.” Daniel Kahneman We probably do this a lot more than we think. Consider how many decisions we face in a day, how many are automatic, and how many switches go unnoticed. It happens to everyone. In a recent post, Scott Alexander… Continue reading Are you tired? Is that really the question?
Supported by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path. Each year we do a brief recap, review, and emphasis on the Nudgestock conference hosted by Rory Sutherland and Ogilvy Change. Here are the notes from, 2018. Here is the post from 2019’s podcast recap. If someone wants more here’s the page of playlists. Rory… Continue reading Nudgestock 2019
The Waiter's Pad 