Mike's notes.
Is it more likely for an infected football player to transmit a disease to their teammates or their competition? Adi Wyner: "I would expect intrateam transmission by far. Not only huddle time, but the time on the bench, in the locker room, and while they travel. It’s a small chance of any given pairing but… Continue reading Large N Small p
In addition to the first post, we can add two more ideas of small probability times a large number yielding a significant result. In the first instance, our large N is t (time), and the small probability event is genetic mutations which lead to cancer. Jason Fung writes about mutations: “This small likelihood of success… Continue reading Large N, small p (cancer, Netflix)
Maria Konnikova is on the podcast-book-tour to promote The Biggest Bluff. It is great. I liked Mastermind more, only because I like Holmes more than poker. One idea from her podcast conversations that might get missed by book readers is how Eric Seidel came to coach her. She told Shane Parrish: “He (Seidel) didn’t actually… Continue reading Small Poker Bets
This is part of the made up start up series. Spinal Tap, the 1984 mocumentary follows a band of bumbling Brits. In one iconic scene, Christopher Guest (lead guitarist) describes his ‘special’ guitars to Rob Reiner (filmmaker). And their amps which “go to 11”. Befuddled, Reiner asks why not make eleven ten. Guest replies, because… Continue reading The Spinal Tap Workout (made up start up)
Maxim Five: low probability events When a low probability event occurs (say an underdog wins a sports championship), we tend to come up with reasons why we might have expected it. This phenomenon is often referred to as hindsight bias, a tendency to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were.… Continue reading Daters, scammers, and Zeckhauser
There’s a lot of advantages to designing day-to-day decisions. It’s may seem unglamorous but changes add up. For instance, try to leave your phone out of reach. But the internet is on there! The heart of design is to change a situation so that something is more or less easy. The beauty of design is… Continue reading Day to day designs
See these green things? They are reusable straws, purchased from Wawa. A lot of times people say “sunk costs” like it’s a bad thing. Part of Poker’s Appeal is thinking conditionally, and one way to do that is to avoid sunk costs. Here’s Maria Konnikova talking with Annie Duke: “The chips don’t remember they used… Continue reading Sunk cost straws
Probably. “The fact is we are a more interconnected world. The two main drivers of new pandemics are the two things that are being debated about the origin of this one: animal-human interface and dangerous laboratory work.” – @DrTomFrieden, Wharton Moneyball But let’s consider the case for why there won’t be another 2020. Tyler Cowen writes… Continue reading Will there be another “2020”?
One of the best-performing stocks of the last twenty years – a famed 100-bagger – is Monster Energy. Why didn’t we see this? If you want to succeed at investing, Howard Marks wrote, you have to be different and you have to be right. Embedded in that is the notion that being different is hard.… Continue reading A Monster JTBD
Around 1992 Russia privatized state companies. The government gave each citizen one voucher they could bring to an exchange for a share of that day’s company. A simple plan – until humans get involved. Not all Russians wanted to own shares. Local markets emerged. A small fish bought all the vouchers in one neighborhood, a… Continue reading Crazy Russian incentives
The Waiter's Pad 