Large N Small p

Is it more likely for an infected football player to transmit a disease to their teammates or their competition? Adi Wyner: "I would expect intrateam transmission by far. Not only huddle time, but the time on the bench, in the locker room, and while they travel. It’s a small chance of any given pairing but … Continue reading Large N Small p

Sunk cost straws

See these green things? They are reusable straws, purchased from Wawa. A lot of times people say “sunk costs” like it’s a bad thing. Part of Poker’s Appeal is thinking conditionally, and one way to do that is to avoid sunk costs. Here’s Maria Konnikova talking with Annie Duke: “The chips don’t remember they used … Continue reading Sunk cost straws

Donation Alchemy

One fertile area for creativity (and anything new is creativity says John Cleese) is in the area between zero and some. It’s in these places where something moves from free to costing that behaviors change. Oh, and it doesn’t have to be an actual cost. Mental accounting works too. There’s a concept in charitable giving … Continue reading Donation Alchemy

The TiVo Problem (trailhead 1)

This post will act as a trailhead for the TiVo problem. Coined by Alex Rampell, it’s the contest between incumbents and innovators. As a question: can incumbents get innovation before innovators get distribution. Examples: Netflix innovated to distribution before Blockbuster distributed innovation. White Claw innovated to distribution before Budweiser distributed innovation. Tim Ferriss innovated to … Continue reading The TiVo Problem (trailhead 1)