Mike's notes.
There’s an idea, it’s a formula but really it’s an idea, in gambling called the Kelly Criterion. Broadly, it suggests to act in proportion to edge. Bet big when you have a big advantage. Card counters, like those in the book Bringing Down the House followed this idea. While Kelly is math, like being Bayesian, … Continue reading Kelly and Crypto
“We’re mostly pretty right,” I told my daughters (13/11). The gist was that our diet is pretty good, but some of what we do will be wrong, we just don’t know what. Even though we shifted to eat slightly less meat, thinking like Bayesians even in the kitchen, I’m 100% sure we are not 100% … Continue reading Cold War incentives
Everything around us, notes Jason Crawford, is a solution. It may be a ‘local maxima’ rather than a ‘global maxima’, but everything around us is the best idea we’ve had yet (given the culture and incentives). And these solutions all influence our decision. The punchline to behavioral sciences, says Kristen Berman is environment, environment, environment. … Continue reading What’s this place optimized for?
For each thing that happens there is a field of potential things which could happen. Those potential events fill out a distribution where some events are more likely than others. A daughter’s height for instance, could be between four and eight feet but it’s very very likely that her height will be between her mother’s … Continue reading Tailing Rodgers (part two)
“The thing that makes The Prince such a timeless and scandalous work,” explained Stacy Vanek Smith, “is the same exact thing, Machiavelli removes morality from the situation.” Smith is out to talk about her book, Machiavelli for Women and the book’s seed came about when Smith was stuck on her salary. Rather, her salary disparity. … Continue reading Machiavellian framing
Mike Maples Jr. worked for a software company that enabled telecom companies to offer broadband service. Mike’s job was sales.For many telcos it wasn’t even a buy or build? question because they were in the hardware business: driving tucks, laying cable, and climbing telephone poles. But not every company was a potential client. “I started” … Continue reading “Going for the no”
“Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define…the truth is more subtle yet in some ways easier: our confusion often lies less in numbers … Continue reading A confusing life expectancy calculation
“Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define…the truth is more subtle yet in some ways easier: our confusion often lies less in numbers … Continue reading A confusing life expectancy calculation
“And so the general mathematical way of thinking about this,” explained Vitalik Buterin, “is if you have A and B, and you had to choose between a compromise between A and B or a coin flip between A and B, would you take the compromise or the coin flip?” Convex situations are x^2 conditions. These … Continue reading Compromise or Coin Flip?
Supported by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path. Update: This is a two-parter. First, the update from Falk on Wharton Moneyball and below from his podcast with Zach Lowe. Getting lucky. When asked how he got started in analytics Falk said: “The short answer is right place, right time.” “But also the right … Continue reading Ben Falk
The Waiter's Pad 