Perfume Customers

“So how do I convince women to buy their own perfume? How could I get the American woman to buy her own perfume? I would not call it perfume,” David Senra quotes from A Success Story by Estée Lauder.

In the 1950s and 60s women didn’t buy themselves perfume. Instead, it was a gift and is an example of JTBD’s customers or consumers dynamic.

In Jobs Theory, producers have to solve the job for both the customer and consumer. No one gets fired for buying IBM articulates the customer angle – but leaves out the consumer. Does IBM serve the job for users (and later, investors)? ymmv

But Lauder did something different. Rather than address the concerns of both groups, she took a page (or inspired one!) from The 22 Immutable Laws of Advertising. Or in the words of Ricky Bobby, if you ain’t first, you’re last.

David again, from A Success Story:

“I would call it Youth-Dew, a bath oil that dubbed as a skin perfume. That would be acceptable to buy because it was feminine, all American, and very girl next door to take baths, wasn’t it? And so think about the difference in size of bath oil, how many ounces you would sell compared to the size of like a perfume or cologne.

We created a mini revolution in the whole world. As I saw it took on a fresher, more stimulating aspect. Instead of using their French perfumes by the drop behind the ear, women were using Youth-Dew by the bottle in their bath water.

It doesn’t take a graduate school of business to figure out that that meant sales, beautiful sales. In 1953, Youth-Dew did about 50,000 worth of business for us. In 1984, that figure was over 150 million dollars.”

Beautiful.

Hockey Erosion

“Tell me about training in general,” asked Rick Rubin, “How did, how was your training different than other hockey players from the time that you started?”

“I was ahead of the curve,” said Chris Chelios, ““because back then, even the guys that were supposedly in the best shape, all they did was bench press and jog or stationary bike. That was it in the early 80s.”

That’s good.

He saw results.

“And my skating improved so much and my strength and endurance. And unfortunately, TR got so many clients that became known throughout the league. And then he was training guys like Rob Blake…And then he wins the Norris Trophy, which is the best defenseman in the league. And I’m like, that’s not fair, TR. So I wouldn’t train with anybody else anymore…I needed another edge.”

Alpha erosion happens everywhere. If something is accessible (like finding the same trainer, paying, doing, etc.) people find it and the edges disappear.

Hard work isn’t an edge. Novel work is, for the moment, because alpha erodes.

Talent CAC Attraction

Acquistion is a game of efficiency.

A friend told me his goal was to collect 100% of his potential customer’s contact information.

I told him that was wrong.

It’s difficult to identify your potential customers. Sure, everyone owns a refrigerator, but that doesn’t make everyone a potential customer for Maytag. That’s inefficient strategy.

What’s ideal is something we first identified from Warren Buffett’s letters. These marketing missives brought in Buffett’s brand of capital. They were people who thought like him and became his permanent capital base.

A few likely customers are better than many unlikely customers. This is not a Large N small p problem.

For hiring, Tyler Cowen recommends this, attraction. Books like, Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google, are a condition of correlation. Is it that Google hires people who are good at puzzles or is it that people who are good at puzzles drift to Google?

“Well, the Teal Fellows Program has a very good record of picking winners. But I think the biggest part of interviewing is not how you interview, but rather which candidates do you attract. So it’s what you’ve done before the interview to make yourself exciting so the good people want to come to you, be looking for you.

And the same is true of Google. A lot of the questions they asked back then actually are not very robust or very relevant. But what Google did succeed in doing was establishing themselves as the exciting place to be for obvious reasons, and they attracted talent.

And if you get talent coming to you, it’s actually not that hard to be at least a pretty good interviewer. So that’s the part of the problem I would focus on.”

From Jimmy’s Jobs of the Future: Tyler Cowen: The future of talent in the 21st Century?, Jun 12, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tyler-cowen-the-future-of-talent-in-the-21st-century/id1535212212?i=1000658723619
This material may be protected by copyright.

Comedy Jobs Language

Jobs to be done is built on the customers language. How do they define problems? How do they frame Solutions? How do they interpret the context?

Comedy is the customers language. Laughter is customer language. Comedians, says MORGAN Housel, are brilliant. 

“Comedy is a way to show you’re smart without being arrogant…the best comedians are some of the smartest people in society.

They understand psychology.

George Carlin understood psychology, I think, better than Daniel Kahneman did. That’s a bold statement, but I think that is actually true. They are so smart at understanding how the world works, what makes people tick, how people think.

But they’re doing it in a way where they don’t want to just impress you with their intelligence. They want to make you laugh. What could be better than that?”

From The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish: #195 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich, May 28, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/195-morgan-housel-get-rich-stay-rich/id990149481?i=1000657006147
This material may be protected by copyright.

Amazon WAS A SAW

”I think Amazon may have made a mistake about the choice architecture of Amazon marketplace,” begins Rory Sutherland

”They have assumed everyone wants maximum choice. And actually, one of the great values of a physical retailer is curation. We won’t stock this, unless it is reasonably repeatedly shopped for.”

Was a saw: Weaknesses are strengths and strengths are weaknesses. Amazon is THE EVERYTHING STORE and what’s a drawback of that? It’s hard to find things.

Amazon addresses this well, but Rory points out the contrast and we can use that. Things are un/helpful, better/worse, un/necessary depending on the context.

Brands succeed, Rory writes, not because they are good but because they certainly aren’t bad. New entrants compete on a new angle – upside, new jobs, etc.

So, what’s really a strength, what’s really a weakness?

Make it easy, CAC

When I talk to young people, they often think a gatekeeper prevents a goal, outcome, or desired effect.

And when young, there often is a gatekeeper!

My advice begins with the suggestion of making it easy. How can they make it easy for their listener to say yes?

During some advising for highschoolers, a lot of it was about talking to their guidance counselors who could approve a class. The students who bought in and prepared their case ended up having their way.

Changes can’t only be logical, they have to overcome inertia. Things are the way they are for a reason.

A humorous example of this came up on the Stratechery podcast.

Talking about Netflix, paying for the rights for NFL games, a reader wrote in saying that Netflix specifically chose Christmas because that’s when boomer’s kids were home. 

That makes it easy!

Get the kids to set up the Smart TV, login, share a good show or two.

There is no better mouse trap. People do not beat a path to your door.

Things need to be sold, people need to be convinced, there is a hurdle for switching.

Often our point around customer acquisition cost is about finding the right customers. Where are the people who will say yes easily?

This is the heart of jobs to be done. This is the central tent pole of many successful businesses. This is where customer acquisition is either a cost or profit center.

Custom language

Florida Publix, February 2024

I used to return these shopping cart to the store. Not anymore.

One of our dog walking neighbors is Jewish and she turned us on to the idea of the Mitzvah. As she explained, it’s the act of doing (unrecognized?) good deeds daily. So on our dog walk we pick up trash around the neighborhood and at Publix we return some of the shopping carts.

It’s only some of the carts because this cart is exactly where it should be. It’s not in a coral or back at the store but it’s next to a handicap parking spot.

Sometimes people with handicap parking needs also have walking assistance needs. Hence the cart. The cart isn’t randomly there, it was purposely placed there by someone who “gets it”.

The same day as this picture, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz was on the Michael Shermer Shoe podcast.

He mentioned a viral tweet that got over a million impressions but only led to five book sales.

So much for “going viral”.

A few days later was Valentine’s Day.

Be curious.

Wonder about oddities, like stray carts.

Be curious.

Think beyond the metrics, like tweet impressions.

Be curious.

Listen to your partner, what do they really want?

Be curious.

You’re not selling tires

From the Chuck Akre episode of the ILTB podcast. A reminder that categories are an abstraction which may conceal competition, customer criteria, and the job to be done.

Patrick: [00:10:15] I’m a quant, but I recognize the art in each of those three legs of the stool and I’d love to spend a few minutes on each. So I came across a really interesting story in preparing for our conversation about a company called Bandag and I’d love to hear that as an example of trying to identify the essence of an underlying business’ value creation, and why it’s ROE can be above nine or 10 for a long period of time.

Chuck: [00:10:36] So this was actually in the days when I was at a firm called Johnston Lemon in Washington, DC. It was a brokerage firm and I was a principal in the firm and we had some interns around and I took an inbox that was full of things I’d tear out of magazines and papers and put in a box and gave them to this intern and said, “Look through there and see if you find anything interesting.”

A week later he came back and he said, “Well, here’s a really interesting company called Bandag.” Why is it interesting? Well, it had very high returns on capital and had done well for a long period of time. And I said, “Great, what business is it?” And he said, “It’s the tire business.” And I looked at the returns and the capital and said, “Well, it’s clearly not in the tire business.”

“What do you mean?”

I said, “Well, take a look at the returns and then take a look at the returns of all the other tire businesses you find and see how they relate to each other.” And Bandag’s was three or four times what they were. I said, “Obviously, it’s not in the tire business. It’s in another business. Our goal is to figure out what business it’s in.”

So we went out to see them and a fellow by the name of Marty [Carver] was running the business. It had been founded by his father, it was in Muskatine, Iowa, and I got to the meeting and Marty had his feet up on the desk and was eating an apple during our interview. So you got a different feel right off the bat, and their business was retreating truck and bus tires. It’s something I really knew nothing about before then.

And we had been through the oil embargo in the United States in the early ’70s, where prices of gasoline went through the roof and one of the principal components of tire molding and recapping is, of course, petroleum based. So it had caused all of their dealers to have a huge increase in the cost of doing business and when prices began to come back down, Bandag took those savings and distributed them to dealers on the basis that they had to use the money in the business.

They couldn’t go buy new Cadillac’s, but they could build a new store. So their principal competition were the major tire companies, all of whom had company-owned stores. All the Bandag stores were franchised. So they were dealing with independent dealers who, as they say, got there at six in the morning and closed at nine at night, as opposed to the employee-dealers, who got there at nine in the morning and left at six at night.

And these people were motivated by their own profits and whatnot, so Bandag, very wisely shared the wealth, as it were, with their dealers, instead of passing it all onto their shareholders, at that time. And it created a huge dealer loyalty and the dealers were able to… They did very sophisticated things about identifying the cost of fuel to a trucking operation if they had a Bandag tread on their tire as opposed to some other kind of tread. And truck tires and bus tires are built and designed to be retreaded two or three times. Most people don’t know that. Automobile tires are not. Bus and truck tires are constructed that way.

At any rate, so they had built this huge loyalty network of independent dealers who continued to use the Bandag name and product in their business, instead of national tire companies and as a result of that, the company had much higher returns on capital than other tire companies

Interesting Listening Jobs

One aspect of Jobs Theory is when producers focus on one aspect but consumers prefer another.

Often this is in terms of measurable features: size, speed, cost and so on. But consumers think about their tradeoffs in a different language. Here’s an example from November 2023.

Bill Simmons: “To me audiobooks don’t seem that much different than podcasts. My wife likes audiobooks more than podcasts but it’s not like ‘I’m an audiobook person and not a podcast person.’”

Malcolm Gladwell: “There’s been a real blurring of that line – but these distinctions don’t matter to listeners who just want to hear something interesting. It’s only insiders who obsess over the differences between podcasts and audiobooks. It’s just interesting stuff to listen to.”

Art Auction Markets

From an August 2023 interview between Tyler Cowen an Paul Graham.

We think of the market mechanism as an information network: What information is considered important? In the world of business, profits are the important information and alpha erodes. To be successful then, your important information should be secret from someone else. This can be done by obscuring your information or by elevating something else for the competition. In Graham’s case the elevated information is “fashionable contemporary crap”.

GRAHAM: It sounds weird, but if you look at where the money’s spent at auction, it’s almost all fashionable contemporary crap because if you think about how prices in very high-end art are set, they’re auction prices. How many people does it take to generate an auction price? Two. Just two. So, you have boneheaded Russianswho want to have a Picasso on their wall so people will think they’re legit, or hedge fund managers’ wives who’ve been told to buy impressive art to hang in their loft so when people come over, they’ll say, “Oh, look, they’ve got a Damien Hirst.”

The way art prices at the very high end are set is almost entirely by deeply bogus people, [laughs] which is great, actually. When I was an artist, I used to be annoyed by this. Now that I buy a lot of art at auction, I’m delighted because it means there’s all this money. You see Andy Warhol’s screen prints selling for $90 million.

COWEN: Yes. Old masters can be, I wouldn’t say cheap, but I would say radically underpriced.

GRAHAM: A couple hundred thousand.

COWEN: Or even less for some good ones.

GRAHAM: Yes, I know because I buy them. [laughs] I used to be annoyed by this, and now I think it’s the most delightful thing in the world because there’s all this loose money sloshing around, and so-called contemporary art is like this sponge that just absorbs all of it. There’s none left. Some of the things I buy, I am the only bidder. I get it for the reserve price. No one else in the world wants it, or even knows that it’s being sold, so I am delighted about this.

The answer to your question, which artists are undervalued? Essentially, all good artists. The very, very, very famous artists, artists famous enough for Saudis to have heard of them — Leonardo, I would say, is probably not undervalued. But except for the artists who are household names — every elementary school student knows their names — they’re all undervalued.