Our school ends Memorial Day weekend, and aside from having a high school graduate!, it’s a calmer time. Tests are done and preps can wait.
But there’s an apt analogy for what it’s like teaching high school and it’s AI.
Teaching high school is like working with a different AI model each day. It might be a good one and it might by gobbledygook. This also depends on the person.
I stand at the front of the room, next to their desk, and online via Google Classroom and I make a request: Please read this article (sometimes it’s only blog posts from here) and write three sentences about what you learned.
Three sentences! Well, the AI never complains about that.
Often the work is okay to great – just like AI. Sometimes it’s nonsensical. Just like AI.
Early on, teaching felt overwhelming because I tried to do too much. It’s like parenting in that sense, only you have 120 kids. Jim Gaffigan has a good joke about this: what’s it like having a fourth kid? Imagine you’re treading water and someone hands you a baby. Students aren’t your kids, but they’re also not not your kids. I’ve hugged crying kids, fed hungry kids, listened, counseled, and encouraged. Kids are messy too.
Teaching got easier when I simplified my goals: pass the state exam, build relationships, be safe. If I’m working towards two or three of those things at any given time then we are making progress.
Teaching is a good situation to see the adage that people overestimate what they can get done in a day and underestimate what they can get done in a year. The kids change so much. It may not always be in the way I hoped – but it’s often in the way they need.
As a family we used to play this Nintendo game called Overcooked 2. The goal was to make food orders. My high school experience at Wendy’s was never this fun.
In Overcooked, your team must notice orders (they look like thought bubbles), prepare the order (cook meat, chop vegetables, wash plates clean), and deliver the requested combination.
Like all good games, it’s was just hard enough. That ‘hard enough’ meant there was no doubt about the order. The NPC doesn’t fib or change their mind.
Life’s different.
Life is a game of telephone.
“The goal is to flatten the org structure, not to the point where no one knows who’s in charge, but flat enough so ideas move fast,” Brad Jacobs wrote.
“I’ve seen org charts where there are nine layers between the customer and the CEO. That’s bureaucracy. The shorter and more direct the line from problem to decision, the better.”
We also tend to measure the easy thing not the right thing. It’s the easy metrics that get us in trouble.
In my high school class it’s easier to see “time on task” or “quietly working diligently” than learning. So teachers, me included sometimes, get lost and track who’s not doing their work.
That can be a good proxy. If someone is watching YouTube all the time, they probably aren’t learning. But, man, I’ll tell ya, these kids are an enigma wrapped in a riddle. You just don’t now.
So sometimes, usually after a calm Sunday, I head back to work wary. Wary of telephone and wary of easy metrics.
“I’m going to work until my next birthday,” a near retiree friend told me. We were having dinner and she’d already punted on retiring her previous birthday. But this next one would be it – unless she wanted to travel more.
Alaska was last year, Galapagos is this year, Africa the year after. “I met with a financial advisor who ran a Monte Carlo simulation,” she said, “if I save a little more and take vacations from my income rather than savings, it’s more likely I’ll be better off.”
Monte Carlo simulations, I thought, that sounds like a task for an LLM. After entering some approximate figures and going back and forth, Gemini ended with this: The Median Outcome: Even with this safer spending, the median outcome is ending up with $10M+ at age 83. This highlights the “Saver’s Dilemma”—to guarantee you don’t run out of money in the worst 10% of scenarios, you usually end up with a massive surplus in the other 90%.
Humans are feeling creatures, and it was a good feeling to know the spending “floor”. (See also: Maxims for Thinking Analytically, extremes). In almost all situations $X is your spending floor.
Decisions are a constant tradeoff of: what kind of mistake are you willing to live with?
When I returned to teaching the cheating whack-a-mole was a whole new level. Twenty years ago laptops were a minority, now Chromebooks are ubiquitous.
Imagine you’re running a marathon against one other runner. You’re neck and neck through the first five miles. You pull ahead. But then you notice something. There’s another runner ahead. You misunderstood. You’re running a marathon against a relay team.
That’s the whack-a-mole challenge. Pop one area, a fresh one arises.
Teachers have the same choice as retirees running Monte Carlo simulations (and all of us!). What side do I error toward? There’s no bullseye because there’s no right answer, just blunders one way or another.
In the classroom, I give grace. Punishing a kid who worked hard and had questionable (LLM?) answers is worse than catching the number of cheaters +1. Retirees aim for grace too, only from the market.
It’s like an alarm system. Do you want it to go off at false alarms or miss real events?
This is the same spirit at the heart of 4000 Weeks – mistakes are inherent, are we choosing which ones to make?
My daughter’s high school (where I teach) has a new software program this year called Parent Square. It’s an app/service that allows school messages to be delivered more consistently, more immediately, and (unfortunately) more often.
During our training meeting where the administration sung the app’s praises I couldn’t help but think like an economist: oh this is too easy.
We all want to be informed parents. Or do we? Do parents want to know everything going on their children’s lives?
Regardless of if we want it (I don’t think we should) – we can’t!
Around the same time as my frustration with so many notifications, Kris Abdelmessih was asked about how to be a trader. He gives helpful advice. He’s a great writer, a good dad, super smart, and kind online. But part of kindness is honesty, he wrote:
“It’s gonna sound maybe harsh, but I tend to think that if you’re gonna figure it out, you just kind of are. You’re gonna find what to read; you’re gonna find the right things. And it’s like, if you’re unable to do that meta work, you’re just not cut out for it.”
Don’t bring information to a design fight. Want to change behaviors? Make it easier to people to take actions. Want to not change behaviors? Give people (more) information about the world. The ones who want it will get it.
One of the (few) calculations for my Business and Entrepreneurship class is customer acquisition cost. I’m a fan.
Rewriting the text for the upcoming year forced me to reemphasize and reiterate the value of a low CAC. Especially in the world of social media marketing and influencer marketing where CAC is sometimes zero. It’s an incredibly powerful idea.
But anything zero or low coast can be. Especially when part of an equation that divides (zero by many) or one that multiples many by a low cost (such as almost zero).
Talking with Chicago Fed Chair, Tyler Cowen asked about this very thing.
COWEN: What would be an example of something with a marginal cost of zero?
GOOLSBEE: [laughs] Well, I don’t want to reveal anything about our operations and get myself in trouble about the Federal Reserve operations. If you look at marginal cost of zero things, opening meetings to include others and having folks work together, sharing of information can often have very low cost — if not literally zero — and strong benefits.
Maybe this is the engine of alchemy. Find something that costs nothing (or very very very little) and do more of that. If it’s valuable (or very very very valuable) do a lot more of that.
All dogs wanted to be good dogs, no matter how unpromising they seemed. You just had to help them find a way. – The Old Man
There were frustrations when I returned to the classroom. Pesky persistent complainers. Foot draggers. Sleepers. Phone concealers. Make up concealers. C’mon, we’re in this together.
But then, after threatened and assigned detentions. After exhausted days. After hallway gripes. I realized, they’re just puppies.
People are just like puppies. Both have basic states of operation given their genetics, rules of physics, body chemistry and so on. Then, they both learn rules.
Puppies are taught not to pee in the house. Puppies are taught to walk on a leash. Puppies are taught to socialize. We don’t get mad at puppies for being puppies – we once had a puppy that only chewed up the right shoe. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Everything my students did was learned – successfully!
Complaining got results. Procrastination worked. Sleep was fine.
Life got a lot better when I thought about students as puppies.
Don’t Shoot the Dog! It takes time, persistence, and work to train puppies. Oh, and it’s fun. Puppies are happy to learn things and it feels good to teach them. Just like students. Just like all of us.
There are two ways to teach chess, a master explained.
The first, is to teach chess principles that may apply to life. And the second, is to teach life principles that definitely apply to chess.
“Could you give me an example of one such principle? Because I love in biology teaching not names, not using nouns, but instead teaching verbs. Because ultimately, if you want to understand, for instance, how the nervous system works, or the immune system, you teach the verb actions of molecules.
And the names of the molecules are important if you decide to go into that field professionally. But otherwise, the principles and verbs are what’s most important. So what’s an example of a principle of chess or a mode of action on the board that you think transfers?”
Yet we teach with nouns and employ nouns because nouns have a lower cost, even though they may not be the right tool for the job.
The big idea from Outlive is that most health advice centers around avoidance (smoke in the lungs, sun on the skin, cells overloaded with sugar).
The next chunk of advice centers around basic things: move some, cultivate relationships, eat nutritious foods. It’s two 80/20 systems stacked on each other.
But we think about the last mile because we like to feel like we’re doing something. We like to feel that action is progress.
Think of grinding on a project 50% of the time. If you double that to 100% that’s a 2x increase. What might take two years now takes one. That’s a sizeable change.
But “If you’re pushing 80% of the time, then the multiplier drops to 1.25x. You’re getting fairly close to max capitalization.”
Pretty good is pretty good.
This might be a more optimal situation too because of another idea: you have to be consistent before you can be heroic. I often said this to myself during a lot of Zone 2 training during 2024 (ultimately this worked out for me, I set a PR in the half marathon of 1:32:30).
There’s not a lot of return for grinding away at something all the time relative to most of the time. Like with Outlive’s advice, pretty good is pretty good. And, having the extra wiggle room allows for other things like serendipity and consistency.
There are some ideas where I feel more or less confident about being true, this is one where I am confident it is a thing, but I am not so confident I understand it.
How much should someone code? Is “=CORREL” enough? What about HTML? I use RSS and Markdown and emojis all the time but I don’t code any of those things. Yet, there’s a lot of talk about needing to code. You need to code to get ahead. You need to code to keep up. We need to code the code’s code! But coding is situational. Replace “code” with “cook” and its like, oh yeah, that’s pretty varied.
What we really mean when we say, “people should know how to code” is that people should be able to use tools to deliver value. Code is a tool that does a job. The appeal of code, says Richard Feynman, is that it’s so dumb it’s fast. Code can also be copied. Code is a tool that delivers value unrestricted to time or place.
There’s a lot of ways for code to be a tool, it depends on the level. Sometimes =CORREL in a spreadsheet cell is the right amount of code. A spreadsheet is code too. There’s a bunch of math behind =CORREL that someone doesn’t need to know. That function is a tool within a larger function, the spreadsheet. All these functions within functions are the User Interface (UI).
“Consciousness is more or less the UI for how your brain works. Much like a UI, it wouldn’t help if Microsoft Word made me code in the structure of a document. There are programs, like LaTeX, that allow you to do that, but they are a pain in the ass to deal with because you have to specify the underlying details. The whole point of a UI is that it is an abstraction that sits on top of all the stuff underneath. For the most part our conscious is the UI for what is happening in our minds.” – Kyle Thomas, Stoned Studies August 2021
This nesting-doll nature of code is to be expected according to Brian Arthur. Yes, he tells Jim Rutt, that it has gotten more difficult to repair the things we use but this is because, like code, we create sub-systems for convenience of use.
“One of the things that happens is that if some sub-system is used often, it might have say 54 parts to it. If it’s used again and again and again, over several models and years it becomes modularized, becomes its own thing and it’s separately manufactured and it may have a cover on it. It may not be accessible to amateur mechanics, and it may only be accessible if you’re trained by Mercedes or Audi or whoever it is. And you’re properly trained. You have the proper tools. So as the lesson here is that as inner parts are used again and again, in the same configuration, the tendency is that they become modules.” – Brian Arthur, The Jim Rutt Show, August 2021
What is code? What does it mean “to code”? It depends!
This is good news. Rather than “learn to code” we should focus on “learn to solve problems”. Many of those problems will require tools. Some of those tools will be code. It is these kinds of problems: needs repeating, needs scaling, fits-with-existing-modules where code will be the tool for the job. Sometimes that code will be deep in the nesting dolls. Sometimes that code will be a simple spreadsheet cell. How many layers of UI depends on the problem to solve, the job to be done.
One effect of all the great content creation is the long-tail effect. Most of what’s created, from business breakdowns to that seventies show, will only be consumed by a small number of people. The long-tail idea is also true for an individual. Any given day my consumption is family news, then local and regional, then a national service or two, my favorite feeds (related: The Three Ways to Spend Your Day) and then the long tail stuff.
I used to feel bad when good episodes appeared in my feed and I skipped them. That’s fine, it’s just a query away. Which brings us to today’s point: a few of my favorite internet tricks.
Twitter search is not great, but with a few search operators it gets better. Mostly this is from:@mikedariano “jobs”, which returns tweets mostly about jobs-to-be-done. This is especially helpful to do before tweeting at someone to see if it’s been addressed already.
Wikipedia. Google (IMO) has suffered due to the incentives. It’s not a big deal, but rather than having a higher trust threshold I now go right to Wikipedia for Wikipedia-style searches.
Reddit. In 1994 I was twelve and one of the best feelings was visiting a video rental store. There were super-interesting sections I could plumb all day, there were areas I had no interest (at that time), and a restricted section I did not investigate for fear of what was behind the beaded curtain and whether or not I could unsee what I saw. That’s Reddit. The best Reddit communities might be the best places on the internet.
Listen Notes. Nowhere is the long-tail evident more than Listen Notes, a podcast search engine. Recent deep dives into Sears, DTC, MTV, and behavioral science all yielded results I could not have Googled. After creating an account, add your query results to the Listen Later playlist and add that RSS to your podcast app. If that sounds complicated it was a bad explanation rather than a difficult process.
Crudely the future of work will be some dichotomy of I give computers instructions or Computers give me instructions. During the Sears research (via Listen Notes) I found out that their first mail-order system was terribly bad. One customer wrote to Sears asking for the sewing machine she’d ordered, she’d received four wrong ones. It was only when Sears centralized their operation in Chicago that the mail order businesses succeeded. In 2021 there are companies like Locus Robotics.
But computers aren’t creative. Computers can’t handle a bunch of conditionals. Computers can’t frame things. Computers don’t in Bob Pittman’s words, understand when this is another one of those. Using the internet well is using computers to do non-computer work.
There is a 70’s show, The Long Seventies Podcast, that’s pretty darn good. I listened to the oil crisis and MPAA episodes.