Recap: Mood affiliation is when an attitude unduly influence our perception, for example cruise ships. Bayesian thinking is updating our beliefs relative to the information.
“The marshmallow study,” Andrew Huberman told Shane Parrish, “was when they gave kids the option to have one now or two if they wait. It’s fun to watch the videos where the kids sit there and use all sorts of distractions and strategies (to keep from eating the marshmallows).”
It’s enjoyable to like the marshmallow study.
We must discount it.
Being Bayesian means updating on new information and liking is information.
Selling is information too. I believe in meditation, vegetarianism, and exercise because they are hard to sell. If someone said: Sit a room and focus on your breathing and you’ll feel better, I would believe them because one of their incentives is NOT financial. Kinda. Health as a product: vitamins, beds, bells, rings, bands and so on, fails this test. Regulating my sleeping temperature (which Huberman helpfully explains) may be helpful, but the bar of persuasion is higher. That’s being Bayesian.
Deferred gratification works. It makes sense, it shows up in the lab though “the studies aren’t as robust as we once thought,” and “it’s obvious deferred gratifiers do better over the long pull than these impulsive children.” But we must raise the bar when when we want to like it – a form of deferred gratification itself.