Alice runs her team conservatively and finishes with 17 wins, 17 draws, and 4 losses.
Bob runs his team with more variance and finishes with 19 wins, 11, draws, and 8 losses.
Which is better?
Let’s reframe, like the ball bet. Is it better to exchange 2 wins for 6 draws and 4 fewer losses?
Haralabos ‘Bob’ Voulgaris bought a soccer team because he knows these answers because he’s seen these questions.
After Moneyball but before Morey-ball, Haralabos discovered and gambled on basketball inefficiencies. The best known now is the three-point shot. Voulgaris thinks that soccer is similar. Teams earn three points for a win, one for a draw, and zero for a loss. Rather than three or two points in basketball, it’s three or one points in soccer standings.
Soccer’s business model is like the music business model. Artists lose money recording an album, break even touring, and profit from the merchandise. This had to be Pixar’s business too. Division three soccer teams lose money, division two teams break even, and La Liga or Premier League teams “print money”.
Soccer teams can move up (promotion) or move down (relegation). Bob’s team, CD Castellón is in the third division and they need about sixty-eight points for a chance at promotion.
Both Alice (17/17/4) and Bob (19/11/8) earned sixty-eight points – but they don’t seem equal. This is Bob’s point – it’s worth risking more for wins than less for draws.
The big question is: What are the right metrics for this system?
- Hurricane wind speeds are probably the wrong metric. Though easy to measure they don’t convey the potential storm damage which comes from the rain, surge, and flooding. Moneyball and Morey-ball are both descriptions of systems where the important metrics shifted.
- ‘Draws’ is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. It seems fine – splitting the difference between a win and a loss – but the unique point system shifts the weight.
- Risking more – Bob’s approach – focuses on what matters. It’s the points stupid.
Humans are loss averse but the soccer standing scoring rewards bucking this trend. Alice and Bob own soccer teams, let’s see what happens.