Smuggling or Selling Cigarettes

It’s 1943 and Rae and Joseph meet in a Nazi concentration camp. Then, in 1945…

When the war came to an end, Rae and Joseph fled to Hungary, where they were quickly married. The day after the wedding, they trekked through the Austrian Alps and snuck across the border into an Italian displaced persons camp. They applied to come to America, using my grandmother’s last name, Kushner, since my grandfather had accrued a rap sheet from smuggling cigarettes into the camp to provide for his family.

They were accepted into America three years later.

The same day I read this, in Jared Kushner’s Breaking History, someone had been a real jerk. A Lowlife, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, bloodsucking, stiff-legged jerk.

But what’s the context? When is it smuggling cigarettes and when is it selling them? When is someone a jerk and when is someone having their own bad day? Maybe they had to deal with their own snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, bloodsucking, stiff-legged jerk?

JTBD requires an empathetic perspective. Figure out why someone acts the way they do. Not that many people roll out of bed with the express goal of being a stone in our shoe. Instead we can be curious, ask questions. We can conclude if someone was selling cigarettes or smuggling them.

The Lego Story (book review)

The LEGO Group was founded in 1932 by Ole Kirk Kristiansen and the story is told in The Lego Story by Jens Andersen.

The takeaway, like all successes, is to work hard and get lucky. Rather than a review, let’s tour history through industry.

1919, Denmark’s economy slows. “Farmers in Billund and other districts benefited from Denmark’s neutrality during the First World War, by selling grain and meat to the warring nations and earning some extra hard cash by producing peat.” When farmers have money they can pay carpenters like Ole Kristiansen. And if farmers don’t, they can’t.

1925, a fire in Ole’s woodshop. This will be a recurring theme.

1929, the depression. “For a while, the future looked promisingly bright, but shock waves from the Wall Street Crash in October 1929 that wiped out billions of dollars in wealth quickly spread to Europe. Germany and England, Denmark’s biggest trading partners, were badly affected, and the price of grain, butter, and pork crashed.”

1932, anything that sells. Though woodworking had been his trade, it was the 1931 Yo-Yo craze that inspired Ole to make toys. “By the 1930s, yo-yo-ing had become a nationwide fad,” writes Chat GPT, “with tournaments and competitions being held across the country.” Ole’s brothers and sisters want to know why a good carpenter would waste his time, “I think you’re much too good for that, Christiansen—why don’t you find something more useful to do!”

1933. “We worked like dogs, my wife, my children, and I, and gradually things began to pick up. Many days we were working from morning till midnight, and I bought a cart with rubber wheels so the neighbors wouldn’t be disturbed when I took the packages to the station late at night.”

1940, Germany invades Denmark. Though occupied (and part of the resistance group, running grenades to saboteurs in LEGO boxes) it was a good time for LEGO. Parents were “keen to protect their children from hardship,” and during the five years of occupation, LEGO’s revenue grew.

1942, another fire in the woodshop.

1946, plastics? Ole buys a plastic molding machine. Through the early 1950s executives at LEGO will say no no no, plastic toys will never take off.

1947, Ole sees his first plastic brick from an English toy manufacturer. This is the seed for LEGO but will prove a thorn in their intellectual property side for decades to come.

1951, the top-selling LEGO toy is the (plastic molded) Marshal Plan-delivered Ferguson tractor.

1955, LEGO bricks roll out to toy stores.

1956, LEGO bricks roll out to Germany. Andersen writes, “Selling toys in Germany would be like selling sand in the Sahara.” LEGO advertises in one city, Hamburg, creating a two-minute film to play before features. Word spreads.

1958, good news, LEGO invents the tube on the underside of the LEGO brick. Ole Kirk passes away and his son Godtfred takes over.

1962, the Scale Model Line. Godtfred grows up playing LEGO, so do other people. What if we make LEGO for professional adults? The Scale Model line is for engineers to design with LEGOs. Even the everyman could create his own house. The project fails but leads to the 1/3 size pieces ubiquitous in today’s sets.

1968 LEGOLAND Denmark opens. It’s a hit.

1976 oil crisis. “A significant part of LEGO’s challenges in the 1970s could be ascribed to two separate oil crises, a stagnating global economy, Denmark’s falling birth rate, and a declining toy market abroad.”

1978 minifig enters. Lego, Kjeld Kristiansen notes, has three phases: blocks, wheels, and mini-figures.

1989 LEGO pirates. But Gameboy too.

If there’s one consistent lesson through each decade of LEGO it’s the importance of sales. Every few years someone comes along and says the toys are good enough and every few years someone else reminds them but we have to sell these things. It’s just hard work.

Russian Reading List

There’s a financial advisor axiom that the best plan is the one you’ll stick with. For trainers, it is exercises done through a full range of motion. The best endocrinologists find an achievable plan, not an ideal one. There should be one for education too. With that in mind, here’s a list of Russian resources optimized for consumption rather than comprehensiveness.

We’ve done this before with books about China and related, history books that are business books.

The Rest is History (podcast). Some podcasts are better than books because the host(s) add context. Dan Carlin is great at this. Tom and Dominic do too, and their series on Vladimir Putin is excellent.

Red Notice. A finance thriller? Yep. Bill Browder spent decades opening, running, and closing a fund in Russia during the switch from communism to oligarchy.

Muppets in Moscow A 2022 book, h/t Marginal Revolution about Sesame Street in Russia.

Exporting Raymond. We love Phil Rosenthal’s Netflix travel/food show Somebody Feed Phil. This is the story of taking the show Everybody Loves Raymond to Russia.

Koylma Tales via Agustin Lebron called it “a collection of stories of people who lived in the Gulag, possibly the most revealing book on human nature I’ve ever read.” Takes place through the 1930s and 40s.

Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin’s Most Dangerous Hackers. Forgot this source. “The true story of the most devastating cyberattack in history,” notes Amazon, “and the desperate hunt to identify and track the elite Russian agents behind it.” 2,000 reviews averaging 4.7.