Three Bob-isms

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This is from The Circuit Breaker reset email. It’s my tribute to Jobs theory using the podcast by Bob Moesta and Greg Engle as a base. When their podcast is on, the newsletter will recap, summarize, and provide additional links. When their podcast is off, like now, it will keep the good times rollin’.

Subscribe here -> https://thecircuitbreakerpodcast.substack.com/

Unpack here -> https://thecircuitbreakerpodcast.substack.com/p/postseason-2

The Secret Language Of “Bob-isms” introduced three Moesta mantras. These are BIG ideas with later explanations. 

Your product is the mustard, not the sandwich. Bob met with members of TransUnion who were proud of their product: credit scores. No, no, no begged Bob. People do not care about their credit scores. They care about buying a home or a car – for that, they need a credit score. After this Moesta meeting, TransUnion teamed up with businesses that helped customers make those purchases. 

Context creates value. Baby carrots were created to help with cooking but when the product was tested, consumers wanted them for snacking. That context: I’m at home and want something healthy, easy, and tasty to eat or serve created a category and most carrots sold today are baby carrots. The End of Average discusses this idea further.

Contrast creates meaning. Consumers are okay-ish at communicating importance. Asking “What do you want” isn’t helpful. Instead, Bob and Greg use contrast and bracketing. Is this for you or you and the family? Did you drive or fly to the hotel? So this was too expensive/cheap or long/fast or sweet/salty? When people eliminate options they share what’s important. 

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Homework: Continue to do Jobs thinking. Reply to this email or share in the comments with the slightest idea.

Base Rate Neglect(or)

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In Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman writes about the planning fallacy. He’s in a group of professors tasked with writing a textbook. Each proposes a timeline. Each is confident. These are well-established professors after all.

But then Kahneman asks a group member who actually contributed to a textbook: How long did that take? Hmm, he thinks, never less than our longest guess.

It’s a ‘textbook’ planning fallacy. We error to optimism. Michael Mauboussin thinks of a home remodel. The neighbor’s project has delays and cost overruns but ours?

I know this. I’ve written about this for more than seven years. I make this mistake.

Our daughter’s high school is planning choir trips. The possibilities include Pigeon Forge, New York City, and Northeast Ohio.

Ohio, I exclaimed, that really stands out.

Yeah, my oldest said, we might go to Cedar Point.

Cedar Point? That’s awesome! How is that on your teacher’s radar?

Maybe, my wife said, he’s from Ohio or a member of the coaster club.

Oh, I said, If you’re going to Cedar Point I bet he’s a member of a coaster club.

…

I started with my inside view. Another approach is starting with the outside information and shifting from there: Kahneman’s textbook author, Mauboussin’s neighbor.

I grew up in Cedar Point. We know people in coaster clubs. That was my inside information. Upon inspection, it looks like <10,000 people are members of such clubs.

But 16,000-30,000 people leave Ohio for Florida each year.

Thinking in base rates (or like Fermi) prevents my error. Are there more people from Ohio who move to Florida than people in coaster clubs?

Change the framing, change the process.

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I can still hear the ‘thank you for visiting America’s roller coast’ before clacking up the Magnum hill, feeling excited, enjoying the view and the breeze, marveling that something so tall can be so narrow, and feeling my stomach lift through my torso.

The Disney Parking Problem

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Though Disney is the most magical place on earth, their vacations take work. Saving. Planning. Coordination. Make a reservation at the hotel, the park, the restaurant. Packing the right clothes for your kids. Sunscreen too! Transportation.  

There’s a lot going on. 

Then the magic. Princesses. Castles. Rides. Shows. There’s a reason it’s one of the best brands and businesses in the world. 

But when guests leave, they have a problem. 

They forget where they parked.

Though the parking lot rows are labeled things like “Dumbo 12” or “Goofy 3”, every day about four hundred people forget where they parked their car. 

Disney is known for its service and they don’t want guests to leave hot, tired, and frustrated at not finding their car in the massive parking lots.  

Instead of a technological solution, Disney challenged the parking lot attendees to come up with something. They did not disappoint. 

Disney staff write down the time each row fills up. Guests more often remember when they arrived rather than where they parked. 

This simple solution turns frustration into delight. 

This is part of the Daily Entrepreneur series I write with Aaron.

Mother’s Day Gifts

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American households spent $175 on Valentine’s Day.

I gave cash.

A stack of twenties seems like an odd and impersonal gift for a valentine, mother, or a friend but even cash serves multiple jobs.

My wife appreciated the cash not for the money but for the convenience. It meant one less trip to the ATM, one less IOU when a co-worker’s kid had a fundraiser, and one easier way to pay at McDonald’s.

Thinking about convenience is a way to think through jobs to be done.

Buying a shirt for dad can be a gift of convenience as well. If dad doesn’t like shopping then a new shirt and no trip to the store is a double gift.

Okay, but I don’t know what to get. That’s fine. Practice your jobs-to-be-done thinking and consider the context. When does someone feel rushed? Is it early or late in the day? Is it before work, church, or something else? Who else is there? What creates the pressure? Is rushed the right antonym for convenience?

Explicit digging may not work, instead, inquire softly. Act like a documentarian. Be curious, not judgmental. Get mom a great gift and practice jobs thinking. That’s a gift for both of you.

Being Bored (b -> c)

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Ed Sheehan deleted the social media apps from his phone. “If you don’t have any distractions – I was literally writing four or five songs a day ‘cause there was nothing else to do.” 

Jerry Seinfeld sat down with a pad of paper, a pencil, and coffee. He set a timer. He does not have to write anything. But if he does anything it has to be writing. 

Todd Field asked his father-in-law, famed screenwriter Bo Goldman (One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest) how to write a movie. “You sit down, take the phone off the hook,” it was the 90s, “and when you get up you have a screenplay.” 

Neil Gaiman took these ideas further and built a writing hut. It’s just beyond his home’s Wi-Fi. Like Jerry, all he can do is write, but he doesn’t have to. 

If it’s time to execute, do not do these things. 

But when it’s time to think broadly and cross-pollinate ideas. When it’s time to grow something new or redo something old. When it’s time to brainstorm rather than build. 

Be bored first. 

Domino’s Lesson

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Domino, a famous stallion, was buried in a grave with a worn marker just on the side of the road. Domino only produced nineteen foals yet is in the pedigree of the greatest horses that ever lived: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Assault, Bold Ruler, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Gallant Fox, Omaha, Native Dancer, American Pharoah. Of the thirteen horses to win the Triple Crown, nine have Domino in their family tree. Now he was forgotten on the side of a road.

Wright Thompson, Pappyland

Everybody Pivots

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This is from the Daily Entrepreneur Newsletter.

Research suggests that 93% of successful companies “had to abandon their original strategy – because the original plan proved not to be viable.” 

That was the case for Ben & Jerry’s which pivoted from a retail shop to B2B to B2C pints.

That was the case for Chobani, which pivoted from feta cheese to Greek yogurt.  

That was the case for LEGO, which pivoted from buildings to furnishings to toys. 

But how do you know when to pivot and where? 

Harvard professor Clayton Christensen wrote, “when the winning strategy is not yet clear in the initial stages of a new business, good money from investors needs to be patient for growth but impatient for profit.” 

That is, if growth is slow, profit is essential. 

But if growth is fast, profits can wait. 

If both are slow, pivot! 

It’s messy out there. There are no hard and fast rules. There is no one-size fits all solution. 

But it helps to know. Businesses change. Profits and growth are contextual.

The Daily Entrepreneur newsletter delivers brief meditations on the principles & practices of the world’s greatest business builders. This newsletter will always remain free and dedicated to helping you get a little better each day.

How to Run Your Brain

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Sports psychologist Josephine Perry was on the Bad Boys of Running podcast to talk about the mental aspects of the sport and how to design your life to work with your brain.

Want to use your phone less?, asked Atomic Habits author James Clear, put it out of reach. The need to “check things” is small and easily clears any friction when the phone is in our pocket or on the table. But make yourself get up, a small but significant task, and we simply don’t do it as often.

A design approach works for our brains too.

1/ Your brain is a relative thinker, from Instagram to other runners, what we see sets the terms.

We prioritize information based on its availability. Change what’s easily available, change what we compare ourselves to, like a PR.

2/ Your brain is designed for danger, food, and sex (aka survival). Don’t you dare start into the unknown it sternly warns.

One solution is to deconstruct large problems into small ones. Writing a book is hard. Writing something every day is easier. Collecting ideas from a podcast is easier yet. Each big and scary attempt is a collection of small and doable attempts.

Another is to create a jar of wins. Write down accomplishments and put them in a jar. The visual is good – we’re visual creatures – and it uses the brain against itself. Rather than being fearful, our brain has evidence of hard things we’ve already done and we’re more likely to start.

3/ Your brain is lazy. Our how ya feeling language is limited. We only use words like: fine, angry, frustrated, tired, good, or excited. Limited words mean we have limited responses.

But precise language changes our description and consequently our reactions. Rather than be tired we can be worn out mentally from work. That’s different from I’m an introvert and need a break from people. Different triggers, different actions.

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Personal growth is a challenge. We’re working on the thing while we’re working with the thing. But it’s easier with tips like these.

It Costs More and It’s Worth It

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“This carton contains some of the finest ice cream available anywhere,” begins the original copywriting on Ben & Jerry’s pints. 

“We know because we’re the guys who make it. We start with lots of fresh Vermont cream and the finest flavorings available. We never use any fillers or artificial ingredients of any kind.” 

It was the 1980s. European style was the flavor of the month. Häagen-Daz, the ice cream market leader. 

“With our specially modified equipment, we stir less air into the ice cream creating a denser, richer, creamier product of uncompromisingly high quality. It costs more and it’s worth it.” 

It costs more and it’s worth it. 

Customers tell a story about your product. Is it the same one you tell? 

Discount airlines tell a story. They highlight what you don’t get: free checked bags, snacks and drinks, and premium services. It’s not pilot quality, aircraft age, or mechanic training. It’s the little stuff. That’s why you save. 

People tell a story about your business. Is it the one you want? 

This is from a daily email I write with my friend Aaron.

The Lego Story (book review)

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The LEGO Group was founded in 1932 by Ole Kirk Kristiansen and the story is told in The Lego Story by Jens Andersen.

The takeaway, like all successes, is to work hard and get lucky. Rather than a review, let’s tour history through industry.

1919, Denmark’s economy slows. “Farmers in Billund and other districts benefited from Denmark’s neutrality during the First World War, by selling grain and meat to the warring nations and earning some extra hard cash by producing peat.” When farmers have money they can pay carpenters like Ole Kristiansen. And if farmers don’t, they can’t.

1925, a fire in Ole’s woodshop. This will be a recurring theme.

1929, the depression. “For a while, the future looked promisingly bright, but shock waves from the Wall Street Crash in October 1929 that wiped out billions of dollars in wealth quickly spread to Europe. Germany and England, Denmark’s biggest trading partners, were badly affected, and the price of grain, butter, and pork crashed.”

1932, anything that sells. Though woodworking had been his trade, it was the 1931 Yo-Yo craze that inspired Ole to make toys. “By the 1930s, yo-yo-ing had become a nationwide fad,” writes Chat GPT, “with tournaments and competitions being held across the country.” Ole’s brothers and sisters want to know why a good carpenter would waste his time, “I think you’re much too good for that, Christiansen—why don’t you find something more useful to do!”

1933. “We worked like dogs, my wife, my children, and I, and gradually things began to pick up. Many days we were working from morning till midnight, and I bought a cart with rubber wheels so the neighbors wouldn’t be disturbed when I took the packages to the station late at night.”

1940, Germany invades Denmark. Though occupied (and part of the resistance group, running grenades to saboteurs in LEGO boxes) it was a good time for LEGO. Parents were “keen to protect their children from hardship,” and during the five years of occupation, LEGO’s revenue grew.

1942, another fire in the woodshop.

1946, plastics? Ole buys a plastic molding machine. Through the early 1950s executives at LEGO will say no no no, plastic toys will never take off.

1947, Ole sees his first plastic brick from an English toy manufacturer. This is the seed for LEGO but will prove a thorn in their intellectual property side for decades to come.

1951, the top-selling LEGO toy is the (plastic molded) Marshal Plan-delivered Ferguson tractor.

1955, LEGO bricks roll out to toy stores.

1956, LEGO bricks roll out to Germany. Andersen writes, “Selling toys in Germany would be like selling sand in the Sahara.” LEGO advertises in one city, Hamburg, creating a two-minute film to play before features. Word spreads.

1958, good news, LEGO invents the tube on the underside of the LEGO brick. Ole Kirk passes away and his son Godtfred takes over.

1962, the Scale Model Line. Godtfred grows up playing LEGO, so do other people. What if we make LEGO for professional adults? The Scale Model line is for engineers to design with LEGOs. Even the everyman could create his own house. The project fails but leads to the 1/3 size pieces ubiquitous in today’s sets.

1968 LEGOLAND Denmark opens. It’s a hit.

1976 oil crisis. “A significant part of LEGO’s challenges in the 1970s could be ascribed to two separate oil crises, a stagnating global economy, Denmark’s falling birth rate, and a declining toy market abroad.”

1978 minifig enters. Lego, Kjeld Kristiansen notes, has three phases: blocks, wheels, and mini-figures.

1989 LEGO pirates. But Gameboy too.

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If there’s one consistent lesson through each decade of LEGO it’s the importance of sales. Every few years someone comes along and says the toys are good enough and every few years someone else reminds them but we have to sell these things. It’s just hard work.