An hour wait at Disney

You are at Disney. You planned ahead. You open Touring Plans (theme park visit optimizing software). Here’s how the creator thinks about what you see.

“Let’s say we were trying to predict what (wait time) Disney is posting for Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We have to do two things. We have to predict the number Disney is going to show on the wait time sign in front of the ride, and then we have to predict the actual wait time. We have to predict both because if we showed only our expected wait time and you walk up to the ride and see the posted wait time is sixty minutes and we are predicting five minutes, then you won’t believe our number.” – Len Testa, Causal Inference, October 2021

Like weather reports or repair times, Testa and his team generate more value by being less accurate.


In the fall of 2021 Disney released a similar feature to what Testa created: Genie. It will be an interesting TiVo problem .

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