We note that numeracy is important but it is hard to box in what numeracy is and how to use it well. Generally it is this idea that numbers explain some parts of the world well and we should use those numbers in a world full of people.
Maybe an example will help:
“The Best Buy Geek Squad was reporting the mean (repair time) to their customers. A customer walks in to get their computer fixed, the part is on backorder, and the Geek Squad would quote the mean time to repair the computer. Of course, that means plenty of people’s repairs were not the average amount of time. So they changed and reported the 95th percentile time. They ranked the past times and now quote that to the customer – which is what people want!” – Elea Feit, March 2018
Like wet bias, maybe we can’t handle the truth. Or rather, maybe the way we see the world makes more sense one way rather than another.
One thing people are pretty bad at is randomness. We use stories to connect actions to events. Another thing we tend to miss is thinking that what did happen was the only thing that could have happened. It’s not.
We work around this through design. For instance, we know innovation is important but without separate metrics and incentives it’s less likely to happen. Put another way, it’s the framing stupid.
Wet bias makes sense. Being less honest than possible also makes sense. Quoting average waits may be more accurate but it’s less valuable.