1400s Portugal’s Innovator’s Dilemma

It’s the late 1400s and Christopher Columbus needs money.

People know, (Gutenberg, 1440) the world isn’t flat. But people don’t know what’s out there.

Marco Polo (1295) reported that there’s a lot out there and it’s not that far. But there’s no consensus that westward from Portugal, Spain, and England is anything more than some rocky island.

“By late 1491,” Christopher Columbus, “is about ready to give up.” “England wasn’t going to (fund him)” said Dominic Sandbrook, “the most plausible alternative to Spain doing it is Portugal but their eastern ventures are successful.” Portuguese sailors found a route around the tip of Africa to India. They don’t need to explore.

The innovator’s dilemma exists within the explore/exploit dichotomy because of incentives: ESPN go brrrr. If it were obvious, there would be no dilemma.

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This is Dali’s The Discovery of America by Christopher Columbus at the St. Petersburg Dali museum (January ’22). It’s not a large museum but these paintings are huge – 14 feet tall!

Sandbrook says that Columbus embraced his namesake who carried the poor and weak across a river. Columbus felt like he ‘carried Christ’ across the Atlantic. That’s how he saw himself. That context gives that painting a different meaning.

If pre-1900s trade excites you, look up For All the Tea in China by Sarah Rose. It’s the of Scottish botanist Robert Fortune’s EIC’s sponsored trip to sneak tea out of China.