Our TTID series is built on the idea that this time is different when the structure of the system changes. In what ways have the participants, incentives, and “laws” shifted so that new things emerge?
High jump changed with the Fosbury flop because the landing area softened. A similar sport story may be happening in college football. With the rise of NIL, transfers, and [generic social media self-branding explanation here] the player’s incentives shifted.
In the fall of 2023 there were headlines like “Deon Sanders is the best coach in college football” and “Shaq says Deon reminds him of Phil Jackson”. Ex ante, bettors [predicted](https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/win-totals/) Colorado to win three games. After notching two wins, their predicted total is 6.5. (Note: What might Laplace lead to?).
So, is this time different?
Answer 1: Nothing changed! Something is always happening. Each year some team, through a combination of skill and luck, overachieves. The most parsimonious explanation is that Colorado is that team.
Answer 2: This time is different. Deon is a good coach and through NIL, transfers, and [generic explanation] his team is now excellent. Blue blood programs must now adapt or die.
Number 2 note: I’ve known about the red queen effect but just learned about the court jester effect. Where red queen is PVP, court jester is player vs environment, like in wonderful book, Beak of the Finch (5$ for a used paperback shipped to your door). College football may still be a PVP zero-sum “arms race”, but it’s interesting to think how it may be a macro influenced system too.
Use care explaining “this time is different” because usually it’s not. System, when healthy, change slowly. Like children growing taller, the daily difference is imperceptible. Only after time do we notice the growth.
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