Inverting Punting Questions

Typical analytic situation have three potentials for improvement (or, competition).

  1. Better data, think motion tracking in football or hockey.
  2. Better models, think the shift from batting average to on-base-percentage.
  3. Better people, think the 1980’s shift when Edward Thorpe began competing with other Ph.D.

However, the largest potential gain in analytics (at least sports, circa 2020) is the implementation. It’s no use coming up with a good idea if you can’t get it into the portfolio.

Richard Sherman and Chris Collinsworth offer a stopgap solution. Talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers decision to punt on fourth and one from the forty-six, “If you’re the Cleveland Browns you’re definitely relieved,” said Sherman, “shoot you only needed a yard, you can fall for a yard on most defenses.”

This idea has been around a long time in sports, Bill Simmons has spoken about it often on his podcast; what does my opponent fear the most? I’ll do that.

Some NFL teams have solved the implementation obstruction with a direct line from the analytics department to the coach. Teams slower to adopt and adapt can take the idea of inversion and just ask one of their coaches. It would be great to see a head coach ask his defensive coordinator if the offense should stay on the field, or indeed if they should punt.

Note, I listened to Thorpe’s A Man for All Markets and while long, it was good particularly because it was read by him!

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