Compromise or Coin Flip?

“And so the general mathematical way of thinking about this,” explained Vitalik Buterin, “is if you have A and B, and you had to choose between a compromise between A and B or a coin flip between A and B, would you take the compromise or the coin flip?”

Convex situations are x^2 conditions. These are coin flips. War, says Buterin, is a convex condition. It’s better to fight at A or B rather than A and B (Jack Reacher style). Travel during Covid is another. Host Julia Galef adds another, “as someone who took only two thirds of her course of antibiotics for strep throat at one point in college, I can attest to the all or nothing approach.”

Concave decisions are compromise. Omnivores are concave. Iatrogenics is concave.

Concavity filters advice. Any really great idea is too expensive to pay for.

I like this reply so far but let's make it $100k. Here's why it's a good litmus test.

If you offered me $100k for my opinion, I'd turn it down bc there's no silver-bullet information I can share with you that is worth $100k or more to you and worth less than that to me. https://t.co/ZxFHI3CoCV

— Kris (@KrisAbdelmessih) March 8, 2021